Economic Forecasts
Goto: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/
The U.S. Economic Forecast
Updated: May 8, 2008
| 2008 | 2009 | 2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
|||||
IQ* |
II Q |
III Q |
IV Q |
IQ |
II Q |
Annual |
Annual |
Annual |
|
Real GDP |
0.6 |
0.4 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
CPI Inflation |
4.5 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
Real Consumer Spending |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
Unemployment Rate (%) |
4.9 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
4.6 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
90 Day T-Bills (%) |
2.04 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.50 |
1.75 |
4.38 |
1.64 |
1.88 |
10 Yr Treas Bonds (%) |
3.66 |
3.47 |
3.47 |
3.47 |
3.47 |
3.72 |
4.63 |
3.52 |
3.84 |
The table above describes the economy through 2009. Based on the numbers presented where do you think the economy is headed?
Look up the economic indicators used by the conference board and summarize what each indicator measures and how each indicator may give insight into the direction the economy may take (up, down, sideways).
What global economies seem to be on the upswing?
Look up the business cycle indicators for the US. What do these indicators tell us about the future of the U.S. economy?
Are we getting mixed messages?
Develop your own forecast from sources used in the past and describe the economy 4 years out. What will you face upon graduating from college in 2012?